Archive for June, 2009

Hyperinflation movie – Beware

Monday, June 29th, 2009

So this movie is circulating the blogosphere

With respect to the people appearing in this movie,
This movie was written by Jonathan Lebed
have you Wikipedia Jonathan Lebed?
having done so, and to cut a long story short: as a minor the guy was prosecuted by the SEC for running penny stocks in internet chat rooms and settled for some 285K.

He is currently an active trader and sells his advice through a newsletter.

Let me state the following :
The movie sounds like a hard sale push talk.
You would not accept such a hard sale conversation from the ordinary salesman.
Note the scary music, loud towards the end to make the message stick.
Most respected persona in the movie are shown via clips taken from the networks.
I would look further into the material before jumping to conclusions.
I am long gold though.

Too big to fail – Google

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

This post is a work in progress and reflects my current thoughts and fillings about the great Google experience.

Let me clarify up front: i do not think that Google is evil despite what Krugman says. Granted, I would never choose a motto that emphasize what not to do, in a way, Warren buffet strives to achieve the same effect by asking his CEO’s to imagine their decisions on the front page of their community newspaper which has a much stronger effect, though not quite catchy as a motto.

No. this started as a feeling that all is not well in the happy place, services quirked, there were blackout periods and i even got some JavaScript errors(oh, the horror!), in main web pages (such as the search front page),I was starting to think that Google had recruited just a little bit too much newbies and let them get on production code just a little too fast.

Then  I heard Eric Schmidt at this podcast and it left me excited but also extremely concerned, Google does store all this data…

this feeling did not crystallized to anything specifically until i stumbled upon this little (extremely technical) article by Nicholas Nassim Taleb(the Black Swan, not an excellent book, but a very good point) and then it hit me : Google is not evil, it is simply too big to fail.

Let me elaborate, Contrary to other software giants like Microsoft(Bad Bad), Oracle and even Internet Giants like Yahoo and Amazon, Google second motto is to crawl and index ALL the data that is out there, not just your surfing and shopping habits, simply everything, your cellphone location and direction (Latitude), through your search history, shopping behavior, media habits, investment preferences,mails, meetings,documents, health,images,social network connections. If its online it will be indexed, if not Google will go to great lengths to get it online.

In the podcast (minute 29), the moderator (Edward Felten) asks Eric  “to what extent do this privacy issues limit your ability to get new business.. i might say I’m a little scared of all the information that Google has about me..personally I’m not so worried but if Google fell into evil hands i would be pretty concerned to what happened to all that data” to which Eric promptly answers “We have a rule of don’t be evil” then he elaborate: the entire Google business is based upon trust, if Google will fail to honor this contract, the business will go elsewhere immediately.

While that’s just plain wrong, users are bound to Google services and will find it extremely difficult to migrate to competitors, Google will suffer tremendously from such a scandal.

But here is the case, Eric refers to Google as a single entity while in fact Google is the sum of all it’s workers, datacenters, code, bugs and users. as Nassim Explains simply in the article, a rogue trader can take down a bank, a malfunctioning machine can take down a software service (Gmail was down numerous times lately) and a rogue employee can take down a company.

Later that month Simon Johnson coined the phrase “Anything that is too big to fail is too big to exist” in his article at the Atlantic, which summed things up pretty neatly.

Google is a wonderful organization, which invest heavily in wonderful innovations that will benefit all mankind, it holds though, ever increasing hidden risks, that can and will affect all of its users.

For the latest funny bug, check out this link in ie8 (the Firefox version is less buggie but still have some weird behavior) now scroll down as much as you can, really, now go back up, i get a big wide white gap. I was not looking or bugs just stumble upon it.

AtBroker.exe remote desktop error

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

this had been a long time issue for me.

When you are trying connect to a remote desktop which happens to be a windows server 2008 – but can be a vista edition as well, you sometimes get this despicable error message :

AtBroker.exe

The application failed to initialized properly…

And than the black screen of death. (yes black)

What i used to do was restart the machine from another machine using command line, or just go to sleep. (embarrassing i know)

Strangely enough, I was not able to find a solution to this problem.

Today, finally, after receiving this error once again, the Google karma was in my favor and the solution popped up immediately at Spat’s blog

CTRL+ALT+END will get you to the logoff screen, I just choose to lock the machine than entered the password again.

And I was in.

Ahh.. the pains one will go through to stay late at night and work…

inflation my dear

Monday, June 22nd, 2009

 

Ah… the inflation threat, i know, am worried too.

What should one do, buy a Parisian retailer like like the Dankner do? or dig gold like paulson and  Spitznagel?

A tough dilemma..

I pulled out an old article by Warren Buffett to shed some light on investment expectations and strategies.

The deflation/inflation debate appears to be leaning towards inflation these days while stagflation had returned to the discussion as a threat-term.

On a side note: Nouriel roubini looks like he partied too much, this sign alone may signal the end of the recession. (no, not really).

Bernanke’s Gold

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

 

Ben Bernanke says that he believes inflation will remain low.

Peter Boockvar via Barry’s brings an old quote of Greenspan saying that gold is a good indicator of inflation.

Now gold is a few percentage points below its all time high.

So which of the great Fed Chairman’s is wrong?

I think Bernanke is saying “the right thing” much in the same way his famous “soft landing” remarks were said.

I preferred that to Ben being wrong on inflation expectations.

Interesting enough, Krugman take side with Ben, while Kasriel disagree.

I’ve put a table of current inflation predictions:

High Low
Gold Paul Krugman
Paul Kasriel Ben Bernanke
Me  

 

Fill free to vote in the comments, ill update the table as long as ill see fit.